How can we understand the Turkish invasion of Syria to destroy the Kurds? Most reactions have been partisan, not understanding the complexity. Few consider the context of the region's history, and the role of the outworking of prophecy.
Ottomans
Turkey is the remnant of the splendidly corrupt Ottoman Empire, at its height a vast territory: the Levant, all the various peoples of area to Iran and to Egypt, and deep into Europe. It is only a century ago that it controlled and oppressed all the peoples and tribes of the Levant, and the Euphrates. This great power over the Euphrates was predicted in its rise to expand as 4 Angels, or rulers, to conquer 1/3 of Europe by war.
Saying to the sixth angel which had the trumpet, Loose the four angels which are bound in the great river Euphrates. And the four angels were loosed, which were prepared for an hour, and a day, and a month, and a year, for to slay the third part of men. (Revelation 9:14-15)
In 1683 Europe finally begins to defeat the Ottomans: at the gates of Vienna. Then it was written:
The sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared. And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs come out of the mouth of the dragon, and out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. (Revelation 16:12-13)
First from the Euphrates warriors go out, 'kill' a third of the former Roman Empire, then later a 'froglike' spirit goes forth that dries it up: the French cry of liberty, equality, fraternity which turns to become nationalism and freedom from oppression by elites. From 1683 to 1798 the Ottomans lost their gains in Eastern Europe. In 1827 Greece won their war of Independence, and from this point there was continual receding of empire, until WW1 when the Ottomans lost most of the Euphrates, and the Empire ended. Detailed here Revelation
Kurds
So in context, just as the Armenians were a people of the former Ottoman Empire, massacred and pushed out of Turkey to make the country Armenia, so are the Kurds a tribal people who retain their identity defiantly. They could have assimilated to become 'Turks', but they didn't. It didn't help that the “Kurds were promised the possibility of an independent state in articles 62 and 64 of the Treaty of Sevres, signed on August 10, 1920” www.mepc.org/node/4723. Whereas the Arab tribes obtained many nations after WW1, the Kurds were split up with some ending up in Iraq, some in Syria and some in Turkey, as the great nations drew lines. Those Kurds in Syria fell into to French sphere of influence and those in Iraq to British. Those in Turkey were oppressed. Today they number some 25-40 million in 4 nations with some notional autonomy in Iraq since the toppling of Saddam. Three different Kurdish independence movements emerged. The movement in Turkey that emerged in 1974 was modelled on a Socialist revolution led by the PKK 'Kurdistan Workers Party'. The movement in Iraq is elitist vested in clan power and is called the Democratic Union Party (PYD). thecairoreview.com
From the Cold war era as Turkey was a key NATO ally and pro-west the Kurds of Turkey were viewed as dangerous communist leaning/ socialist terrorists. When the US saw advantage of supporting the Kurds of Iraq, about 20 years ago it was noted that US policy (and European) was inconsistent, documented as “Good Kurds, Bad Kurds” wrmea.org
Those Kurds fleeing Turkish oppression came to Syria which had a complex relationship with Turkey, but the third movement for Kurdish independence came in the opportunity of the insurgency against Assad's regime. The Syrian Kurds gained an ally in the US in the war against ISIS, or the US gained an ally in the Kurds in the war against IS: depending on how it may be seen as at all points since President Obama the US deployment 'boots on the ground' was low. Yet is it the Socialist PKK or tribal PYD? It turns out that it may be somewhat messy as the Kurds in Syria are led by both the Turkish PKK and the Iraqi PYD in temporary alliance. Ironically the catalyst of ISIS stretch for a caliphate in the Syrian war, was to result in the formation of an unacknowledged Kurdistan.
Great Powers
Great Power involvement in detail complicates the matter further. Due to Russia having historically a base in Syria they moved into Syria with significant forces to protect Assad. Due to the US historically having forces in Iraq, they moved in limited support into Syria to defeat ISIS. Turkey initially backed the US against Assad and ISIS, to even take on Russia, taking out an aircraft in blatant aggression - then switched sides to Russia in 2016, which cut at the heart of NATO.
Now US policy from Obama to Trump has been to remove active forces from Syria and Iraq. Trump made it an election platform, which fitted the mood of lack of US citizen interest in events outside the US, and a distaste for being involved in endless wars nobody understands.
Now enter the regional powers Iran and Saudi Arabia, who make the 3rd in a triangle with Turkey in a struggle for regional power over all the Islamic world. None of them are willing to compromise, none respect any western nation that doesn't have power over them, and all were involved in backing various militias in Syria. Then in a curious twist due to the US pulling back from Syria and talking to Iran, the Saudis have now emerged as allied with the Israelis. The Iranians threaten to destroy Israel. The Turks have broken relations with Israel and break them further in moving towards Russia.
It now emerges, due to events, that the Israelis support the Kurds, and so the Israeli-supporting Republicans are now pressuring Trump to back the Kurds. Also Assad's Syria has just done a deal with the Kurds to back them against Turkey.
Turkish Invasion October 2019
No doubt there will be interminable analysis as to how events occurred, but there is no doubt whatsoever that Turkey's leadership had in its mind and had moved up armed forces to remove the Kurds from the Turkish side of Euphrates in Syria and replace the Kurds with refugees.
The lot is cast into the lap; but the whole disposing thereof is of the LORD. (Proverbs 16:33)
The king's heart is in the hand of the LORD, as the rivers of water: he turneth it whithersoever he will. (Proverbs 21:1)
Any who think the US could have stopped the Turkish invasion are likely foolish. The Russians haven't been able to stop it either.
Russia's defence ministry said its forces, which have been deployed in Syria since 2015, were patrolling along the "line of contact" between Syrian and Turkish forces.
Mr Lavrentyev also confirmed that Russia had helped to broker a deal between Kurds and Damascus that saw Kurdish-led forces cede territory to Syrian government troops in return for military support. bbc.com
The Russians ever pragmatic have allied the Kurds to Assad, which works to both advantage and returns historic Russian and Syrian backing to the Kurds. This means that Turkey is at war with both the interests of Russia and America, but more so with the former.
Proclaim ye this among the Gentiles; Prepare war, wake up the mighty men, let all the men of war draw near; let them come up: Beat your plowshares into swords, and your pruninghooks into spears: let the weak say, I am strong. (Joel 3:9-10)
If we look at the detail of the mess we may be confused, but an overview of the drying up of the Euphrates in history tells us the outcome. The Kurds have been eating at Turkey now since 1978.
More so now the Kurds have both Great Power backing to do so,
“goes back first to Obama withdrawing US forces thereby needing a local proxy to suppress the suddenly mushrooming ISIS. Enter the YPG Kurds, a fairly contentious ally considering that everyone else resented them, Turks, Arabs, Iranians et al. To be fair, Obama himself started with little choice but to draw down having run and won on the ticket that Bush's Iraq war had been a catastrophic mistake. Why did he choose the Kurds rather than the Turks or anyone else as his proxy against ISIS? One theory goes that he inherited the Bush longterm Neo-con strategy of empowering the Kurds and Kurdish unification as a way to redraw the Mideast map. So thought most of the regional players – plus Putin.” forbes.com
The Russians are happy for all fight each other to balance power, the American leadership, realising that none wish for democratic reform or human rights, including the Turks and Kurds, now wish to leave the disadvantageous mess to itself.
Kurds on the Euphrates
But remember the Kurds are practised fighters, and this is about the end of the drying up of the Euphrates so the way of the Kings of the East, the Messiah, King of the Jews may be prepared.
Turkey vows to impose secure zones east of Euphrates in Syria
President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will take action east of the Euphrates river in Syria and impose secure zones as it has done in northwest Syria, the Hurriyet daily and other media said on Monday. Turkey previously carried out a military operation to seize control of Syria’s Afrin region from the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, which Ankara considers a terrorist organization. The YPG also controls the region east of the Euphrates.
"God willing, in the period ahead we will increase the number of secure zones in Syria, encompassing the east of the Euphrates," the Hurriyet website quoted Erdogan as saying in a speech during a visit to New York. english.alarabiya.net
Turkey has been drying up the Euphrates – literally; In 1996 The six GCC countries - Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates - and Egypt meeting in Damascus issued the Damascus Declaration, which demanded a "just agreement" for distributing the Euphrates waters. The declaration strongly criticized Ankara's intention to build another dam, this one at Biricik on the Turkish-Syrian border” mepc.org
In 2019 “Since 1975, Turkey’s extensive dam and hydropower construction has reportedly reduced water flows into Iraq and Syria by approximately 80 per cent and 40 per cent respectively.” limacharlienews.com
This lack of water from the Euphrates combined with a drought led directly to the conflict in Syria in that region:
By 2011, drought-related crop failure in Syria had pushed up to 1.5 million displaced farmers to abandon their land. The displaced became a wellspring of recruits for the Free Syrian Army and for such groups as the Islamic State (Daesh) and al Qaeda. Drought, and the lack of governmental remediation was a central motivating factor in the anti-government rebellion in Syria. limacharlienews.com
This in turn allowed the Kurdish militia, with American help, to capitalise. Yet Turkey very well knows that the Euphrates area in Turkey, which Turkey relies on, is dominated by the Turkish Kurds, who now have a formidable experience fighting.
If we see the longer-term trend we see the Kurds becoming ever stronger in the Euphrates area. Back in 1997 Middle East Policy Council noted:
By the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, the PKK had become a formidable guerrilla organization that was beginning to preoccupy Ankara's domestic and foreign policies. Damascus' support for the PKK stuck in Ankara's craw, but, short of military action, there was little that could be done. Military action on the part of Turks had its risks: mepc.org
The forces building against Turkey include Russia and China “China’s foreign ministry urged Turkey on Tuesday to stop military action in Syria and “come back to the right track” . reuters.com
We see protests timesofisrael.com. We see America apply sanctions, as threatened.
It is highly unlikely the Turks will achieve their desire let alone hold any of their access to the Euphrates. The talk of IS emerging again is foolish, as the Kurdish forces now have a strong hold, and the Turks don't wish for IS to emerge either. IS was a catalyst. The Kurds are part of the last drying up, as Turkey's influence in Syria will be shown as reduced by the power of Russia as a 'guard'.
In the past Americans have won the wars but lost the peace- so it is likely to the mid-term Kurdish advantage to have the few Americans leave, as they are too easily a target. If the first advantage of America saying they were leaving was that Assad and the Kurdish forces agree a border and to work together, then it was a great advantage to the Kurds, though not perhaps foreseen.
Great Powers to The Great War, after the Euphrates dries up
America is not now dependent on Middle Eastern oil, and certainly not Iraqi or Kurdish oil, and the movement of less than 1,000 troops out of Syria by the Trump led American Adminstration is countered at the same time with a move of an additional 3,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. bbc.com Thus it appears agreed that the intractable mess in Syria is a matter for Russia ('good luck' to them as America might mess in that also as they see fit), but the defence of the lucrative trade route against Iran's incursions is an American matter.
It has been understood by Jews since 1797 that Messiah is to come at a time when Russia has power over Istanbul,
Rabbi Lazer Brody – “Rav Shternbuch received a closely guarded secret that came to him from Rabbi Yitzchak Chever zatza”l, who received it from Rabbi Chaim of Volozhyn zatza”l, who received it from the Gaon of Vilna himself, who revealed it shortly before his death:
“When you hear that the Russians have captured the city of Crimea, you should know that the times of the Messiah have started, that his steps are being heard. And when you hear that the Russians have reached the city of Constantinople (today’s Istanbul), you should put on your Shabbat clothes and don’t take them off, because it means that the Messiah is about to come any minute.” destination-yisrael.biblesearchers.com
This is not so much a private revelation but an understanding of how Ezekiel 38 -39 would play out in practice with Russia led by the Gog of the “north parts” (39:2). It has been a general understanding, without any reference to prophecy that Russia has desired control over Istanbul. In 2015 when Turkey was (in effect) at war with Russia, some Jews noted this: jewishpress.com
In early 2016 Jews were still noting this prophecy commenting on the struggle between Turkey and Russia. blogs.timesofisrael.com
But Turkey decided on a day to cease thinking Russia was an enemy in June 2016, even rejecting NATO to buy the Russian missile defence system. From July 2017 the BBC reported on those Watching Russia's Syrian build-up from central Istanbul, showing that in effect since the retaking of Crimea and Détente with Turkey, Russia has free access to Syria (and Israel) through Istanbul. As events will show, Russia now has power to be 'a guard' over Turkey. The Euphrates power let lose by the Four Angels has, finally, totally dried up, that the way of the kings of the East may be prepared.
For they are the spirits of devils, working miracles, which go forth unto the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty. Behold, I come as a thief. Blessed is he that watcheth, and keepeth his garments, lest he walk naked, and they see his shame. And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon. (Revelation 16:14-16)
We devlve deeper into the significance of the Euphrates - boundary of the Promised Land
